Fresno State’s chances of winning are 1/10^32

Certainly most will tell you anything can happen and of the entire fan bases in America there is one that Hate’s Boise State more than any and that is Fresno States fans. And for good reason we stuck a knife in their 2001 Season on the road when they were ranked 8th and other then last year and 2005 held our foot to their throat.

There is nothing like a bunch of wine drinking cheese eating long haired hippie types with their panties in a bunch and that is just what Boise State will have to deal with this this Saturday Night on the Blue Turf.

Certainly in our first meeting Fresno played almost even but lets put some things into perspective Boise had just come off a viscous two game road trip that started with our first trip to Air Force followed by that gut wrencher in Reno. Add in the mid-season Bye week which brought about some rust and that’s what we saw in Boise State 37-27 win.

Allow me to be even more specific since beating Fresno each following weeks Boise States offense has put up 55 on BYU, 60 on New Mexico, 38 on SDSU, 63 on Wyoming, and 50 on Utah. Meanwhile Fresno has managed a 45-17 loss to Wyoming at home, home against San Jose 38-24 win, a 40-20 win at a collapsing Nevada team and eked out a 28-21 win over Hawaii at home. This is not to say Fresno isn’t going to come into the game anything less then totally pumped, but none more so then our beloved Bronco’s will be.

Take away two big runs and a muffed kickoff return and Fresno is not even close to being in the last game. Frankly I believe when the guys review the tape from that game like I have twice over these last 48 hours they are going to be embarrassed that the game was even close. No there is not a single position Fresno can claim as a matchup advantage our D-Line beats their O-line our O-line beats their D-line. Our Running Backs beat their LB’s and our QB beats their DB’s and special teams it’s not even close.

When we talk coaching all I can say is Coach Harsin appears to be a perfect mix, part gambler Less Miles, part straight up power football Bo Schembechler and part Sabin in mastery of his staff. Coach will not allow his men at this point in the season to lose focus on the enormity of this game and what it means. Coach will have this team not just ready for this match up but prepared mentally and physically.

Fresno can come out and play all 4 quarters to the max of their ability with flawless play and it still will not matter other then the score board and I suspect for the first 10 minutes plus that is just what they will do. However this is not a case of an irremovable object vs. irresistible force because both those forces only reside on one side of the ball. For the last 13 years Fresno has used that 2001 loss in an effort to get it’s revenge and twice  have they succeeded in 2005 and last year, even then the best team they have had in decades won by a single point at home to pull off. Not this year, not this time Boise States Dominance is back!

A point will come in this game for Fresno and it could come early or it could come later but they will be a time when they will fold, as they have done against every superior team they have played this year. In the game against USC though the score was 31-13 with 11 minutes to go in the 3rd it was a 2nd & 10 play when USC’s Cody Kessler pass complete to Victor Blackwell for 32 yds from that point on USC put up 21 unanswered and Fresno’s offense never showed it’s self again nor it’s defense.

Against Utah in a 59-27 drumming 13 of those 27 for fresno came in junk time when Utah had long pulled their starters while Fresno kept theirs in. Though the game was over already Fresno didn’t really bail on the field until Utahs Brian Burrell completed a 42 yd td to Greg Watson making the score 52-14 with 12:18 to go.

Nebraska a team that should have lost to McKeese State the week before Fresno bailed with 13:40 left in the 3rd after a 3rd and 6 Brian Burrell’s pass fell incomplete at that point the score was 27-5 final 59-19.

A good quality team can sometimes beat a superior opponent but folks this is not that team the FPI ranking for Fresno’s offense is -1.15 ranked 85th, Defense is -7.23 ranked 100th , overall        -7.03  ranked 91st.  Compared to Boise State FPI offense 8.90 ranked 33rd . Defense 3.85 ranked 37th , Team 11.52 ranked 34th .

The only team with a winning recorded down the stretch Fresno has beaten is Nevada. their other wins come against losing teams Hawaii and San Jose State. Whats even more telling of this Fresno team is it’s two home loses to very poor teams losing in overtime to UNLV and Wyoming beat down.

 

Now I am not saying all Boise State needs to do is show up and they win. The reality is how ever Boise State will not just show up they will as they have shown us all year on the Blue show up more ready to play then their opponents just like the CSU, BYU,Utah and so on this team hasn’t just showed up since the  2 quarters at Air Force and the pain of that defeat is what drives them. The FPI computers give Fresno an 11.9% chance of winning. In physics there is this law of the absurd and that is the chance of any one thing happening when it’1/10^32 when this occurs it’s equals an impossibility. So what I am telling you is Fresno chances of winning are non-existent.’

I’m going to ad some personal thought here something I post earlier on the fb page

I’m just going to be frank I don’t know how else to put this but after poring over stats watching video having to come to grips of playing a team that is 6-6 for the Championship left me feeling angry. Lets be honest here Fresno is an terrible team I would much rather be playing AF or CSU again. It’s not that I have any hate for Fresno I don’t. This game only benefit is win we go to a nice warm place on New Years but we gain no respect regardless the out come, beat the holy crap out of them, well you were suppose to, win a close game man there must be something wrong with us, lose Oh hell no we will never hear the end of it from ever fan in America nope I don’t hate Fresno and I know what I am feeling right now towards them is not a permanent thing it’s just this year right now. I just have total Disdain for this 2014 model Fresno team and really wish things could be different .”

I disdain this 2014 Fresno Team

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