Without a TCU & Huston Loss Boise State cannot make a BCS bowl as an automatic qualifier and here’s why. Only one non AQ team is an automatic qualifier and it is the highest ranked conference champion that must be ranked in the top 16. So even if Boise would stayed ranked ahead of Huston, so long as Huston wins out Huston they would go, but that doesn’t mean Boise would be out of the picture, just like in 2009 Boise State made the BCS on merit. So if Huston wins out Boise will need Stanford to lose again as well as OU, Frankly after the beat down Oregon put on Stanford last night I see them dropping another game before this seasons is out as well Oregon has a mean USC up next and this too could help Boise State cause. The main key for Boise is that TCU stay out of the top 16 and Boise State stay in the Top 12 with a Huston loss and TCU staying outside the top 16 Boise would get the automatic qualifier.
With TCU’s remaining schedule I just don’t see them dropping another game; with Colorado and UNLV both at home left on their schedule it’s just very unlikely. Huston on the other hand has their two hardest games left on their schedule plus a conference championship game if they win out; next week vs a SMU team that beat TCU in overtime then an away game at Tulsa. Even though one cannot say SMU and Tulsa represent major competition for what Huston has faced to date certainly it’s no walk in the park for them.
Considering the SOS of the teams remaining for TCU I find it hard for TCU to be able to get its way to the top 16 without complete chaos at the top which would also benefit Boise State if they were to get themselves back in to the top 6 making it hard for the BCS to pass them by, passing over a 10th ranked team much easier to do then say a #6. However if Southern Miss was to win out and beat an Undefeated top 10 ranked Huston they most certainly would be ranked in the top 16 earning the automatic qualifier.
So what Boise needs from C-USA is a beaten Huston Team with what ever team comes out of the West of C-USA to defeat Southern Miss in the C-USA championship game.
All things being equal Boise State should not fall out of the top 12 today and certainly Stanford should fall behind Boise State after giving up 53 points at home in a game they were never in, TCU should enter somewhere between #20 and #24 and no matter how bad they beat up on the MWC bottom teams at home, not move from there. Leaving us with C-USA Huston needs to lose to Tulsa more then to SMU regardless a Tulsa win against both Huston and Southern Miss would all but assure Boise State a trip to a BCS. In 2009 Boise and TCU faced each other in the Fiesta bowl because the Big East tie in is a bowl of last resort to the fiesta bowl allowing the Orange Bowl to take them in a match up with Florida the second placed SEC team, The Big 12 champ played the SEC champ while the Big 12 second place Nebraska didn’t qualify for a BCS bowl. The ACC, and Big East only had 1 team each in the top 12 the B1G had three and only 2 teams from one conference can go to a BCS game opening the door for the TCU Boise state match up, if Huston or Southern Miss was to win out and be in the top 16 this again is the only way Boise State would make a BCS game,.
The question then becomes just what Bowl? First we must look at the AQ’s. Right now the good news is the top 15 is full of SEC teams and needs to stay that way with Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU. Only 2 teams can come from any one conference and to have the top 12 full of SEC teams repeats what happened in 2009. The fiesta will be stuck this year with a Big East team they don’t want, as no Big East team will be ranked in the top 25 and they just don’t travel well see Uconn vs OU last year. With the big 12 tie in to the Fiesta I look for a Big East OU game unless of course OU upsets Okie state, which frankly I see a Okie state blow out as being more likely, barring any slips for the top teams in the Big 12 they will be sending 2 teams to a BCS game one the National Championship the other the Fiesta, GOOD news if you ask me, time for a change of venue! The Big Ten and Pac 12 will be only sending 1 team each BCS bowling this year so the Rose Bowl is out of the question. Now we are down to two Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl has the ACC tie in and it’s down to either Clemson or V-Tech and a championship game will decide it, if a second Pac12 team is to make it here is where they will go leaving us with the Sugar Bowl and the second place SEC finisher. By all accounts Georgia is heading to the SEC championship game however if present trends continue Alabama will remain the BCS second SEC team unless they are able to upset LSU, if that happens we could see a Georgia Boise State rematch in the Sugar bowl, but I believe even if Georgia was to upset the LSU Alabama would go into the National Championship game and we would have a LSU Boise State match up either way if Boise is to make it to the BCS bowl I believe they are distend for the Sugar bowl and who wouldn’t love to see Boise State matched up with either Bama or LSU? I know I would.
Lots of football left many way to get there for the Boys in Blue things going on their side is Georgia’s resurgence the strength of the SEC and the hope that Tulsa can win it all in C-USA so Bronco nation despite all our hatred for all things SEC we need to pull for Georgia Alabama LSU and Arkansas and your new favorite team to root for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane’s! Then Bring on Bama!!!!!